Last month Aurora posted an 18.7% drop in its average price and I spent most of that update explaining why the number was a mix effect rather than a collapse. September is the proof. The average came in at $1,165,686, down just 1.5% from last September, and the median rose 5.5% to $1,081,500. Against August, the median jumped almost 15%. Nothing changed about Aurora's homes between August and September. What changed is which ones sold.
The real trend is in the detached segment, and it's modest: 33 sales, average down 5.0%, median down 4.2%. That's consistent with the 7% to 8% softening I flagged in August and a little better. Sales were down 18.8% from last September at 56, the fall listing wave arrived at 185 new listings, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio held at 35.1% for a third straight month in the 35% range. Homes sold five days faster than in August and at 98% of asking, the best ratio in Aurora since May. The GTA-wide picture is in our September 2026 Market Watch post.
How Did Aurora Real Estate Change Year Over Year in September 2026?
Aurora recorded 56 sales in September 2026, down 18.8% from 69 in September 2025. The average price slipped 1.5% to $1,165,686 while the median rose 5.5% to $1,081,500. New listings fell 16.7% to 185 and active inventory dropped 12.0% to 292. The SNLR rose 2.4 points to 35.1%, months of inventory edged up from 4.8 to 4.9, the sale-to-list ratio improved a point to 98%, and days on market rose from 32 to 37.
| Metric | September 2025 | September 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales | 69 | 56 | -18.8% |
| Average Price | $1,183,116 | $1,165,686 | -1.5% |
| Median Price | $1,025,000 | $1,081,500 | +5.5% |
| New Listings | 222 | 185 | -16.7% |
| SNLR | 32.7% | 35.1% | +2.4 pts |
| Active Listings | 332 | 292 | -12.0% |
| Months of Inventory | 4.8 | 4.9 | +0.1 |
| Sale-to-List Price Ratio | 97% | 98% | +1 pt |
| Avg Days on Market | 32 | 37 | +5 days |
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Market Watch, September 2026 and September 2025.
A median up 5.5% with an average down 1.5% is the reverse of August's split, and the explanation is the same one in the other direction. Detached homes made up 59% of September's sales against 57% last year and 51% in August. More detached closings push the median up because the middle transaction is now more likely to be a house than a condo. The average moved less because the detached homes that sold were cheaper than last year's. Put the two together and the plain read is that Aurora prices are down a few percent year over year, with the detached median off 4.2%, and the composite numbers are swinging around that trend because 56 sales is a small month.
The sale-to-list ratio at 98% is the best Aurora has posted since May, when it briefly touched 100%. On a $1,081,500 median that's about $22,000 between list and close. Days on market at 37 is five days longer than last September but five shorter than August, so the pace recovered from the summer slowdown even as it stayed slower than a year ago. Buyers in Aurora are paying closer to asking than they were in the spring. They're just taking a little longer to get there.
Supply kept shrinking year over year
New listings fell 16.7% from last September and active inventory fell 12.0% to 292, one of the largest inventory declines in York Region, behind only Vaughan and Richmond Hill. That's why the SNLR is 2.4 points higher than a year ago even though sales fell almost 19%. Months of inventory crept up a tenth to 4.9 because the sales decline slightly outpaced the supply decline, but the overall picture is a market with 40 fewer homes to choose from than a year ago and buyers who aren't in a hurry to take the ones that are left.
What Happened by Property Type in Aurora This September?
Detached homes did 33 sales at an average of $1,375,712, down 5.0% from last September, with the median down 4.2% to $1,255,000. Those homes closed at 98% of asking, up from 96%, but took 37 days against 28 a year ago. Every other segment was a single-digit sample. Freehold townhouses held within about 2% of last year on 7 sales, and the condo townhouse average jumped 32.7% on 6 sales while its median moved less than 3%.
Average Sold Price by Property Type
| Property Type | September 2025 | September 2026 | YoY Change | SP/LP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached (33 sales) | $1,448,231 | $1,375,712 | -5.0% | 98% |
| Semi-Detached (3 sales) | $895,500 | $863,333 | -3.6% | 97% |
| Freehold Townhouse (7 sales) | $931,125 | $911,555 | -2.1% | 98% |
| Condo Townhouse (6 sales) | $718,800 | $954,000 | +32.7% | 99% |
| Condo Apartment (5 sales) | $717,800 | $640,000 | -10.8% | 96% |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, September 2026 and September 2025. Sales counts are September 2026.
Median Sold Price by Property Type
| Property Type | September 2025 | September 2026 | YoY Change | SP/LP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached (33 sales) | $1,310,000 | $1,255,000 | -4.2% | 98% |
| Semi-Detached (3 sales) | $879,500 | $855,000 | -2.8% | 97% |
| Freehold Townhouse (7 sales) | $912,500 | $898,888 | -1.5% | 98% |
| Condo Townhouse (6 sales) | $700,000 | $720,000 | +2.9% | 99% |
| Condo Apartment (5 sales) | $667,500 | $685,000 | +2.6% | 96% |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, September 2026 and September 2025. Sales counts are September 2026.
Detached is the only Aurora segment with enough volume to read, and it's telling a steadier story than August did. The average and median both fell between 4% and 5%, moving together, which means the decline is broad across the detached range rather than driven by a few sales at one end. A year ago the detached median was $1,310,000; now it's $1,255,000, about $55,000 lower. Buyers paid 98% of asking for those homes, two points better than last September, so the detached homes that sold in Aurora Highlands, Bayview Wellington and St. Andrew's were priced to the current level and buyers met them there.
The condo townhouse line is the one I'd ask you to ignore. An average of $954,000 against $718,800 last year looks like a 33% gain. The median is $720,000, up 2.9%. Six sales, one of them clearly at the high end, and the average moves by a third. The median says condo townhouse values are about where they were. Condo apartments show the same problem in reverse: 5 sales, average down 10.8%, median up 2.6% to $685,000. Neither segment tells you anything reliable about value this month.
Freehold townhouses at 7 sales were the quietest segment in a good way: average down 2.1%, median down 1.5% to $898,888, 98% of asking, 30 days on market. Semi-detached did 3 sales. If you're buying or selling anything other than a detached home in Aurora, the September numbers in your segment are a starting point for a conversation, and the real comparables are the specific recent sales on your street.
What Has Aurora Real Estate Done Over the Past 12 Months?
The average price has ranged from $1,105,004 in August to $1,317,466 in October 2025, and September's $1,165,686 sits in the lower half of that band. Sales bottomed at 31 in January and peaked at 76 in June. The SNLR climbed from 30.1% in the winter to 35.3% in July and has held within two tenths of that since, at 35.2% in August and 35.1% in September. Months of inventory have come down from 5.5 to 4.9.
| Month | Average Price | Sales | SNLR | MOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | $1,165,686 | 56 | 35.1% | 4.9 |
| August 2026 | $1,105,004 | 49 | 35.2% | 4.9 |
| July 2026 | $1,301,811 | 62 | 35.3% | 4.9 |
| June 2026 | $1,239,892 | 76 | 33.8% | 5.1 |
| May 2026 | $1,181,220 | 71 | 32.5% | 5.3 |
| April 2026 | $1,153,153 | 60 | 31.4% | 5.4 |
| March 2026 | $1,187,555 | 51 | 31.6% | 5.4 |
| February 2026 | $1,229,261 | 40 | 30.5% | 5.5 |
| January 2026 | $1,238,516 | 31 | 30.1% | 5.5 |
| December 2025 | $1,248,524 | 41 | 30.1% | 5.5 |
| November 2025 | $1,285,894 | 50 | 30.3% | 5.3 |
| October 2025 | $1,317,466 | 62 | 31.5% | 5.0 |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, October 2025 through September 2026.
Aurora's twelve months look like a market with no price trend and a clear balance trend. The average has moved more than $200,000 from top to bottom with no direction, including a swing of almost $200,000 between July and August, which is what a 31-to-76-sale market does. The median tells a steadier story, and the detached median steadier still. Meanwhile the SNLR climbed five points from the winter low and has now spent three months parked at 35%, the firmest Aurora has been in this window.
The three-month plateau at 35% is the thing to interpret. Aurora was one of the slowest SNLR climbers in York Region through the spring, grinding up a few tenths at a time. It then jumped a point and a half in July and has sat there since. That's a market that absorbed its surplus and is now waiting for the next move. The sale-to-list ratio has bounced between 95% and 100% across the twelve months, wider than any other large York Region market, which again is sample size. The September reading of 98% is at the firmer end of that range.
How Did Aurora's September Compare to August 2026?
Sales rose 14.3% from August's 49 to 56. The average price climbed 5.5% to $1,165,686 and the median jumped 14.8% to $1,081,500. New listings rose 52.9% to 185 and active inventory rose 4.7% to 292. The SNLR slipped 0.1 points to 35.1%, months of inventory held at 4.9, the sale-to-list ratio rose a point to 98%, and days on market fell by five to 37.
| Metric | August 2026 | September 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales | 49 | 56 | +14.3% |
| Average Price | $1,105,004 | $1,165,686 | +5.5% |
| Median Price | $942,000 | $1,081,500 | +14.8% |
| New Listings | 121 | 185 | +52.9% |
| SNLR | 35.2% | 35.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Active Listings | 279 | 292 | +4.7% |
| Months of Inventory | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 |
| Sale-to-List Price Ratio | 97% | 98% | +1 pt |
| Avg Days on Market | 42 | 37 | -5 days |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, September 2026 and August 2026.
September reversed almost everything about August. Sales up, median up sharply, days on market down, ratio up. The 14.8% median jump from August isn't a price move any more than August's 19.8% median drop from July was. It's the detached share going from 51% back to 59% in a market where that swing changes which home sits in the middle. Averaging the two months gets you close to the truth: Aurora's typical sale is running a little over $1 million and prices are a few percent below last year.
The listing surge of 52.9% is large even by fall standards, bigger than the regional 30%, and buyers absorbed enough of it that active inventory only rose by 13 homes. That's the most encouraging detail in this table. Aurora sellers tested the market in September and most of the new listings found buyers or are still fresh.
What This Means Heading into October 2026
What should Aurora sellers do right now?
If you held off listing in August because of that 18.7% headline, September is your evidence that it was noise. Detached homes are selling at 98% of asking, the best ratio since May, and the detached median is down about 4% from last year rather than 18%. That said, you have 64 more new competitors than you did in August and buyers are taking 37 days to decide. Price a detached home in Aurora against the past 60 days of sales in your neighbourhood, which will land you around 4% to 5% below what the same home fetched last fall, and you'll sell near asking. Price it to last October's $1.3 million average and you're about 13% above what Aurora homes sold for this month. In the condo and townhouse segments, the September comparables are too thin to price from alone, so lean on the specific sales on your street rather than the segment average.
Is this a good time to buy in Aurora?
Aurora still gives you a little under 5 months of inventory, 292 homes to choose from, and roughly $22,000 of room between list and close on the typical home. Conditional offers with inspections are normal here. The detached segment has repriced about 4% to 5% in a year and is the one place in Aurora where the comparables are deep enough to negotiate from with confidence. Below detached, the samples are thin, which cuts both ways: less competition in some weeks, but less data to anchor an offer to, so you'll be relying on your agent to evaluate each home on its own. The one shift to be aware of is pace. Homes sold five days faster in September than August, and the ratio went up a point. The negotiating window is still open in Aurora. It isn't widening.
What to watch in October 2026
First, the detached median. At $1,255,000 it's down 4.2% year over year, and if October holds within a few percent of that, the August scare is fully behind us and the detached trend is a mild correction rather than a slide. Second, whether the SNLR holds at 35% for a fourth month or finally breaks out of its plateau in either direction. Three months flat after a spring of gains means October's reading carries more information than usual. Third, new listings against last October's 210. September's 185 was down 16.7% from a year ago, and if October's count stays below 210, Aurora's supply is still contracting into the winter.
Thinking About Making a Move in Aurora?
Whether you're in Aurora Highlands, Bayview Wellington, Aurora Village, St. Andrew's or anywhere else in town, our team watches these numbers and can tell you what a small-market month like this one means for your specific home or your search. Reach me at (416) 855-5525 or through teamzold.com.
Shawn Zigelstein, Broker
Team Zold, Royal LePage Signature Realty
š (416) 855-5525
š www.teamzold.com