‘Prices expected to stabilize rather than soar’
By Linda White • Postmedia Content Works
Published Jan 23, 2026
“The market is expected to remain buyer friendly in early 2026 and into the spring, supported by rising inventory levels and continued price softness,” says Royal LePage broker and leader of Team Zold Shawn Zigelstein.
Though the Canadian housing market closed out 2025 with a slight thud, momentum is expected to return this spring, Royal LePage predicts.
The national aggregate price of a home fell 1.5 per cent year over year to $807,200 in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the aggregate home price dropped a comparative 1.1 per cent.
Buyers heading into the spring market have a “meaningful advantage” over last year, namely lower borrowing costs, stable or lower property prices, and choice, Royal LePage president and CEO Phil Soper reports. “Together, these conditions are creating a genuine window of opportunity, particularly for first-time buyers in Canada’s most expensive markets,” he says.
Among the country’s major cities, the report found the most pronounced price declines in Toronto and Vancouver – the most expensive metropolitan markets – where aggregate home prices fell 5.7 per cent and 4.1 per cent year over year, respectively, in the fourth quarter.
“As affordability improves in southern Ontario and British Columbia’s Lower Mainland, households are less likely to feel pressured to relocate purely on housing costs, potentially tempering the interprovincial migration patterns that intensified during the pandemic,” says Soper.
Softer prices in Toronto and Vancouver have been most apparent in the condominium segment, thanks to factors that include elevated inventory and a pull-back from investors.
Royal LePage expects the looming spring market will bring a “renewed sense of momentum,” though not the “sharp surge in activity” typically seen in the spring. Continued consumer caution and a lingering lack of urgency are likely to temper both sales activity and price growth, keeping market conditions more balanced, it adds.
Here in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 4.4 per cent year over year to $1.364 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. The median price of a condominium, meanwhile, fell 8.2 per cent to $656,000 in the same period.
In the City of Toronto, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 9.8 per cent year over year to $1.464 million, while the median price of a condominium was $637,000, representing a 6.5 per cent decrease.
“The market is expected to remain buyer friendly in early 2026 and into the spring, supported by rising inventory levels and continued price softness,” says Royal LePage broker and leader of Team Zold Shawn Zigelstein.
“As interest rates settle near their floor and confidence begins to improve, market activity should gradually increase, helping to move conditions toward a more balanced state. Prices are expected to stabilize rather than soar as increased supply levels will continue to keep a lid on price appreciation, even as demand slowly returns.”
Royal LePage expects the aggregate price of a home in the GTA will decrease 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year compared to the same period last year. After four interest rate cuts in 2025, it also expects the Bank of Canada to put further cuts on ice for the foreseeable future.