Conditions support a housing market recovery, but uncertainty stalls momentum
By: Royal LePage
TORONTO, October 15, 2026
Strong housing market fundamentals not enough to bring buyers back to the table
According to the Royal LePage® House Price Survey and Market Forecast released today, the aggregate1 price of a home in Canada decreased a modest 0.8 per cent year over year to $810,000 in the third quarter of 2026. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price dipped 0.6 per cent
“The Canadian housing market has spent the past three months treading water, with home prices largely flat and national sales volumes on track to finish 2026 slightly below even the sluggish pace of 2025,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Autumn, the second-busiest season of the year, typically injects energy into the market. This year, economic uncertainty and concern that mortgage rates could move materially higher are keeping would-be buyers on the sidelines. “With more homes to choose from and little pressure to act quickly, buyers can afford to wait – and uncertainty gives them a reason to. Yet, buyers have advantages that were hard to imagine during the pandemic-era frenzy. Prices have retreated from their peaks in most markets, and a larger selection of homes for sale gives buyers more time, more choice and greater negotiating power. After years in which scarce housing inventory forced buyers to compete fiercely, today’s market offers room to be selective. The opportunity is there; the confidence to act remains elusive.”
The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 65 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.5 per cent year over year to $856,500, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.5 per cent to $571,900. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.
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REGIONAL SUMMARIES
Greater Toronto Area
The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) decreased 3.7 per cent year-over-year to $1,073,100 in the third quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA declined 2.6 per cent.
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 2.8 per cent year over year to $1,364,400 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.1 per cent to $641,500 during the same period.
“As we move into the fall market, conditions in the GTA remain fairly balanced, although buyer hesitation is still present. Sentiment is improving slowly, but broader economic uncertainty continues to foster caution, resulting in a market that is noticeably softer than 2025 and 2024,” said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold, Royal LePage Signature Realty.
Zigelstein noted that a modest uptick in sales activity at the start of the summer gave way to modest declines beginning in August. Home prices overall continue to decline, but not evenly across property types.
“We’re seeing a stark divide in buyer behaviour: family-oriented properties like detached homes, semis and townhouses remain in high demand, while activity in the condo segment has remained soft.”
In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased a modest 0.5 per cent year over year to $1,071,500 in the third quarter of 2026, yet declined 4.4 per cent on a quarterly basis. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.9 per cent year over year to $1,457,300, while the median price of a condominium remained relatively flat, increasing just 0.4 per cent to $647,400.
“We expect activity will improve modestly through the final months of the year and into next spring, as buyers respond to tighter inventory and adapt to current conditions,” added Zigelstein. “As we look further ahead, we will continue to see a steady improvement in sales overall, though price growth will likely remain modest and uneven across the different property segments.”
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will decrease 2.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.
For the full Royal LePage House Price Survey National Price Composite and 2026 Market Survey Forecast, click here.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q3-2026
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q3-2026
Third quarter highlights:
- In the third quarter of 2026, the national aggregate home price decreased 0.8% year over year; down 0.6% compared to the second quarter.
- The Greater Toronto and Vancouver markets recorded year over year declines of 3.7% and 4.0%, respectively, in Q3. Prices continue to stabilize on a quarterly basis.
- The Greater Montreal Area recorded an increase of 2.9% year over year; modest uptick of 0.5% over Q2.
- Regional markets across the Prairie provinces proved to be more stable, resilient this summer.
- Ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. continue to weigh on consumer confidence, keeping many Canadian homebuyers on the sidelines.
