Canadian aggregate house prices forecasted to go up by 1% in fourth quarter
By Jane Stevenson • Postmedia Content Works
Published Jan 23, 2026
“It’s exactly what we expected the entire year and the message has really been very similar from the end of 2025, fourth quarter, up until right now and it’s been a flat market,” said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and team leader at Royal LePage Signature Realty.
Home sales activity flatlined across most major Canadian markets in the third quarter, according to Royal LePage’s third-quarter 2026 Home Price Update and Market Forecast released early Thursday.
The report says the national aggregate home price decreased 0.8% year over year to $810,000, down 0.6% compared to the second quarter.
“It’s exactly what we expected the entire year and the message has really been very similar from the end of 2025, fourth quarter, up until right now and it’s been a flat market,” said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and team leader at Royal LePage Signature Realty.
“We have not seen a jump. We have not seen a drop. It has just been very flat.”
Canadian single-family detached home median price $865,500 in third quarter
When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.5% year over year to $856,500, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.5% to $571,900.
“Is it consumer confidence on U.S. tariffs? It could be,” Zigelstein said. “Is it consumer confidence on unemployment, on trade across the world, not just the United States? And could it just be a dollar issue that they’re looking at the cost of gasoline and their groceries going up substantially that they don’t want to necessarily move to another house.”
Meanwhile, the GTA market recorded year over year decline of 3.7% to an aggregate home price of $1,073,100 in the third quarter of 2026.
On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA declined 2.6 % according to the outlook.
“I don’t think that’s a high percentage,” Zigelstein said. “What you’re getting is, you’re getting an average. You’re getting an average to say that, ‘Yes, product is still moving. Yes it’s much slower. Yes we know that the prices have come down. However, there is not a dramatic difference from year to year.”
GTA single-family detached home median price was $1,364,400 in third quarter
Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached GTA home decreased 2.8% year over year to $1,364,400 in the third quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.1% to $641,500 during the same period.
In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased a modest 0.5% year over year to $1,071,500 in the third quarter of 2026, yet declined 4.4% on a quarterly basis.
Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.9% year over year to $1,457,300, while the median price of a condominium remained relatively flat, increasing just 0.4% to $647,400.
For the last year, the Bank of Canada has left its target for the overnight lending rate unchanged at 2.25% but with inflation under pressure, economists expect the central bank will begin raising rates again in the near future with two final interest rate announcements in 2026 scheduled for Oct. 28 and Dec. 9.
“Do I see that there’s going to be any major change?” Zigelstein said. “I don’t think a quarter-point change either way is going to suddenly stop the market or throw it into a frenzy and people are going to start buying. I don’t think the interest rates right now are the reason now why people aren’t buying. I think it’s just consumer confidence across the board of why they are taking their time.”
Going forward, Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 1% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.
It’s also forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the GTA will decrease 2% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.
“I think we’re going to see a little bit of an improvement going into 2027,” Zigelstein said. “I’m hoping what that means is that volume will go up a little bit because then you’ll have a product that’s been sitting on the market for quite some time and hopefully start to sell. But I do think we’ll have a fairly flat market heading into 2027 as well.”
